One of the most popular football markets is without doubt the Over/Under 2.5 Goal Market and as a consequence the liquidity on a betting exchange makes this a very attractive prospect coupled with the sure knowledge of, until a goal is scored, the direction in which the odds travel.
Under 2.5 Goals Market will always travel in a downward direction because as the game progresses and no goals are scored the probability of their being 3 or more goals scored dwindles. In contrast the Over 2.5 Goals Market will move in the opposite direction until a goal is scored. Another advantage to these two Markets is that they are not “sudden death” Markets. Even though, after a goal, each market will take a leap in the opposite direction, they will resume their respective trends until another goal is scored or the match ends. These leaps can be quite dramatic depending on how much of the match has elapsed. for instance:
If the odds for Under 2.5 Goals is 1.90 at kick off it may descend to 1.85 5 minutes into the game but if a goal is scored in the 6th minute the odds will soar to perhaps 4.0 before starting to descend again. But if the first goal doesnt come until the 60th minute the odds just before the goal may be as low as 1.25 and after the goal it may rise to only 1.80 as there is only 30 more minutes for the players to score 2 more goals.
These figures are totally probable but if we look at them objectively and stick them into a trade we get the following example.
We Know that the market will move in a downward direction so this is an ideal back to lay trade. If we back under 2.5 goals at 1.9 for £10 our total profit as a bet would be £9. if it won. If we take the first scenario of a goal being scored after 6 minutes and the odds rose to 4.0 to get out of our trade (cash out) we would have to lay the bet at odds of 4.0 for £4.75 to give an equal loss of £5.25.
In the second scenario the first goal doesnt get scored until the 60th minute causing the odds to rise to 1.8 we can therefore trade out at 1.8 for £10.56 giving us an equal profit of 56 p
If we had traded out just before the goal was scored and the odds were 1.25 then we would have laid the bet for £15.20 giving us an equal profit of £5.20.
As with all sports trading, knowing when to “get out” is key to a healthy bank balance.